Production forecast

The module enables the rapid generation of oil or gas production forecasts using probabilistic or deterministic techniques, based on the estimated volumes of hydrocarbon accumulations.

The workflow

The process involves two parts: the Well Model and the Field Model. Together, these components enable the generation of probabilistic or deterministic production profiles.

Well Model: A well production performance model is developed using factors such as the start rate, decline rate, plateau period, and other relevant parameters. Users can generate as many type wells as needed for the project. Production data from real wells or analog wells can be used as a basis for creating the type well model.

Field Model: A field or reservoir model is generated using the available type well models, the estimated number of producing wells, and the drilling rate. The required number of wells is determined based on the well model’s EURs (Estimated Ultimate Recovery) and the recoverable reserve volumes, or by considering the spacing of development wells. Users can also specify the drilling schedule, pipeline capacity, and other relevant parameters and constraints.

Probabilistic decline curve analysis (PDCA)

For oil reservoirs, the decline histories of actual wells are used to develop predictive models of well production through probabilistic techniques. Users may define type wells based on the performance of reference wells.

Probabilistic material balance (PMB)

For gas reservoirs, gas production forecast cases are calculated using material balance methods with variable input parameters. The results of these calculations provide the framework for developing a probabilistic model of field or reservoir production.

Volumetrics-production match

Probabilistic modeling of hydrocarbon (HC) production often results in a significant mismatch between the statistical distribution of production forecasts and the original 'static' estimates of recoverable volumes. Advanced algorithms enable a perfect match between production forecasts and the original geological estimates of recoverable reserves.

Production forecast. Results to economics

The calculation results, which are sent to the Economics module, consist of a set of probabilistic production estimates (profiles) and the corresponding well schedules.